Strike when the iron is hot is a well known adage regarding ironing, but it is also a useful guide to international trade disputes. Prime Minister Johnson is well aware of this, he has a head full of adages, idioms, cliches and random impulses. For proof of this assertion you need only examine his works.
The Northern Ireland Protocol is one of his finest achievements. He entered into it with all the sincerity of his entering into any of his many marriage contracts. It is not the marriage which is important, it is getting the other party into the psychological place where they agree to it, in spite of the catalogue of evidence for the prosecution that suggests not to do it.
Clearly he would have been wiser to treat the negotiating team from Brussels as a mistress, and not one destined for Downing Street. But we are where we are, no man is infallible, to which the PM might privately attest.
It must be noted he has chosen the time of this latest episode well. The EU was always going to be melodramatic about it, like a scorned wife unable to comprehend it was her own tiresome routines that caused the lack of adherence to a legally binding, international treaty in the first place. Who could wish to stay faithful to a party that is so tedious as to obsess over the quantity of effluent we allow in our water and food? Who fails to note that food which glows in the dark is a bloody good lark and not something to tie up in red tape and bury underground.
We have established the EU as the antagonist, but how to win the argument with the Great British public? They can be overly sensitive at times. Explaining that now is the time for the trade war because both the EU and Washington have a full plate in their hands with Ukraine, and the actions of the Conservative Party’s former donors, this may cause some quibbling. Best not do that.
Mr Johnson could explain that we have built up sufficient credit with his Churchill impersonations and he’s cashing it in to keep the DUP happy. The intricacies of what is happening in a governed province across the Irish Sea may not keep the British public’s attention for long, if at all. No. There is a tried and tested argument to make which both Britain and the humdrum souls of Brussels will grip instantly.
Mr Johnson need simply remind the EU it needs us more than we need it. The evidence is now plentiful for this assertion. If we are lacking in vets and dentists and nurses and HGV drivers and fresh produce with a viable shelf life, then the EU must have too much of it. It is the work of Brexit. Brussels will consider itself lucky and readily agree to all the demands we make over the contract once heralded as “Oven Ready”.
